Newt Gingrich is a brilliant man.  He'll leave his neck on his shoulders until such time as he believes the climate is right and then he'll make the decision to enter the 2012 presidential race, not before.   Has a strategy emerged that is similar to 2000 and 2008? 

In 1998 Speaker Gingrich published Lessons Learned the Hard Way.  The publicity for this book placed Speaker Gingrich on all the talk shows.   He was interviewed on the weekdays and the weekends.  He was asked by every interviewer whether he would run and he consistently responded that he was not yet prepared to make that decision.   I thought it obvious at the time that the purpose of the book was to set the stage for a presidential run.  But, when the time came to make that decision, as well prepared as he was due in large part to that book, he assessed the climate and he decided 2000 was not his year.  Perhaps this is because of a diabolic hatred some had for him due to his orchestration of the 1994 Contract With America and because he had so recently resigned his seat in the House of Representatives under a cloud of an ethics scandal.  Although in 1999 he received a clean bill of health this ethics investigation was perhaps still too recent.  It was all too recent.  He decided to wait until 2004 or 2008 in the event a Republican won in 2000 and would seek a second term. 

In 2006 Speaker Gingrich published Winning the Future.   The publicity for this book placed Speaker Gingrich on all the talk shows.  He was interviewed on the weekdays and the weekends.  He was asked by every interviewer whether he would run and he consistently responded that he was not yet prepared to make that decision.  He identified some conditions in which he might run but he was noncommittal until the very end.  I thought it apparent at the time that the purpose of his book was to set the stage for a presidential run and I still believe this to be true.  But, when the time came to make that decision as well prepared as he was due in large part to that book, he assessed the climate and he decided 2008 could not be a year for a Republican.   He did not run.   His reputation was intact and he walked away from a race without having been fired upon.   This is not true of Giuliani, Romney and especially McCain. 

It is 2010.   He has published To Save America.  The publicity for this book has already and will continue to place Speaker Gingrich on all the talk shows.  He is being interviewed on the weekdays and on the weekends.   He is consistently asked whether he will run for the presidency in 2012 and he consistently responds that he will make the decision in February 2011.  I believe that this book enables him to test the water again and determine whether he could be a viable candidate before he becomes a serious candidate.   

Newt Gingrich is smart.  He will not waste a year of his life and untold millions of dollars on the hope of a win.   If Newt Gingrich declares his candidacy this next February it will be based upon his assessment that he has a very good chance to win.   Newt Gingrich is much like Thomas Jefferson.  It is when Newt Gingrich dines alone that we can expect the greatest per capita IQ in any room in this country.