US Senate

2010

2011

Change

Republicans

41

53

+12

Democrats

59

47

-12

The tally below identifies only one long shot, Delaware.   Expect the Senate to go to Republicans without some significant and unanticipated event between now and Election Day.    I see no hope for Democrats to take any current Republican seats.   This is not the mood of the country.   

I also encourage people to watch New York, Connecticut and Delaware.   It is unlikely that all three will go Republican but should they, I would expect California, Oregon and Washington to also go the same way.    This would add four more seats to the Republican column above as I have only picked Delaware and Washington to go Republican.   

Note, Joe Lieberman (I ) and Bernie Sanders (S) are included as Democrats in the above tally given they caucus with Democrats.

State

Incumbent

Projected Winner

Opponents

(D) Democrat (R) Republican

(I) Independent (C) Constitution

Tally

Alabama

Shelby (R)

Shelby (R)

Barnes (D)

Not much of a challenge here.   Shelby leads Barnes in the polls by 30 points.  

State

Incumbent

Projected Winner

Opponents

(D) Democrat (R) Republican

(I) Independent (C) Constitution

Tally

Alaska

Murkowski (R)

Miller (R)

McAdams (D)

Murkowski

Murkowski is the epitome of the selfish, spoiled sport who as a child would return home with their ball unless they were the quarterback.    Murkowski was defeated in the primary by Joe Miller because Alaskans apparently no longer wished to be represented by a moderate to liberal Republican.   Alaska is a Republican state and it is likely that Murkowski will not fare any better in the general election than she did in the primary because her continued candidacy is a write-in candidacy only.   Her presence is also more likely to pull votes from the Democrat candidate than they are from Joe Miller.       

State

Incumbent

Projected Winner

Opponents

(D) Democrat (R) Republican

(I) Independent (C) Constitution

Tally

Arizona

McCain (R)

McCain (R)

Glassman (D)

McCain should win again.  His biggest challenge was in the primary not in the General Election.  McCain is polling 20 points ahead of Glassman.    

State

Incumbent

Projected Winner

Opponents

(D) Democrat (R) Republican

(I) Independent (C) Constitution

Tally

Arkansas

Lincoln (D)

Boozman (R)

+1

Not much of a challenge here.  Lincoln is far behind because of her involvement in trading her votes during the Obamacare debate.   Even though she traded that vote for benefits to her constituents, they wanted healthcare less than they wanted any pork she could bring home.   A definite Republican pickup.  All polls show Boozman well above 50%. 

State

Incumbent

Projected Winner

Opponents

(D) Democrat (R) Republican

(I) Independent (C) Constitution

Tally

California

Boxer (D)

Boxer (D)

Fiorina (R)

California is such a heavily democrat leaning state but despite this Fiorina is providing Boxer a significant challenge.    Fiorina is the former CEO of Hewlett Packard and there should be no question but that Fiorina will have a better grasp on the issues faced today by our Congress.    Boxer is a blathering idiot who needs support of the Democrat Party in California.   I endorse Fiorina but at this time the race is too close for me to call.    Boxer is currently ahead by 5 points in the polls but there are still a lot of undecided and it is usually not good for the incumbent when people are undecided as late as a month before the election.   Who in California doesn't already know Boxer?  If they are undecided they are more than likely to go for the challenger.   This is one that could be fun to watch on Election Night.   Boxer is poised to be upset.    

State

Incumbent

Projected Winner

Opponents

(D) Democrat (R) Republican

(I) Independent (C) Constitution

Tally

Colorado

Bennet (D)

Buck (R)

Bennet (D)

Buck (R)

+1

Bennet has been a rubber stamp for Obama.  He was appointed to the position by Governor Ritter when Ken Salazar moved to be Obama's Secretary of the Interior.   My apologies to the nation for Colorado being the source of Ken Salazar and his resultant performance on issues like the Gulf Oil Spill.   On the other hand many of us were happy and remain happy to have him no longer representing Colorado in the Senate.   Buck is a strong candidate and has already exceeded 50% in one poll.     I endorse and I will vote for Ken Buck.   

State

Incumbent

Projected Winner

Opponents

(D) Democrat (R) Republican

(I) Independent (C) Constitution

Tally

Connecticut

Dodd (D)

Blumenthal (D)

McMahon (R)

Chris Dodd elected to retire rather than lose a Senate election by a landslide.   Dodd does not get enough credit for his participation in the financial crisis.   He protected Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and for this protection he received a sweetheart deal from Countrywide Mortgage that was not available to the average Connecticut citizen.    Blumenthal is a kind of mousy guy who in multiple speeches identified himself as a Vietnam veteran.   Not a Vietnam era veteran but a Vietnam Veteran.  He spoke of the ridicule received by "us" when we returned home from Vietnam.   It was ultimately proven that Blumenthal never set foot in Vietnam.   Odd that New England Democrats would ridicule GW Bush for serving in the National Guard during this war but would elevate Blumenthal as their candidate for lying about the extent of his service.    McMahon is neck and neck with Blumenthal but after the candidate debate during the first weekend of October I expect her position will be elevated.   She proved to the electorate that Blumenthal hasn't the first notion as to how to create jobs in Connecticut.    The experienced CEO, McMahon, told him how.  Regardless, hope as I may that my birth state will return a Republican in November, Obama still polls high in that state.   Perhaps they haven't yet read what Obama wants to do to the insurance industry.  Linda McMahon has a month to demonstrate to Connecticut voters that she is more qualified than Blumenthal and also remind them of his obvious character flaws.    This could be an upset in the making but right now I reluctantly give it to Blumenthal.  It will probably remain in the Democrat column.       

State

Incumbent

Projected Winner

Opponents

(D) Democrat (R) Republican

(I) Independent (C) Constitution

Tally

Delaware

Kaufman (D)

O'Donnell (R)

Coons (D)

+1

O'Donnell is accused of witchcraft.   She admitted while on the Bill Maher show that she dabbled in witchcraft when she was in her teens but only for the few moments she had a boyfriend who was into witchcraft.   She is also accused of radical opinions that conform to the Christian church to which she now belongs.    Is this the best Democrats can do?   While in her teens she did something stupid?   Who didn't do something stupid while still in their teens?    On the other hand, Mr. Coons while in his twenties described himself as a bearded Marxist.    Who was the most mature when these beliefs were prominent in their minds?    I would rather have a former witch than a Marxist in the Senate.   It is only the current witch that concerns me but she is in the top job in the House of Representatives.   This represents a special election as the seat is the one vacated by Joe Biden when he became Vice President.  Coons is currently polling above 50% but I predict an upset in Delaware.  O'Donnell demonstrates a connection with the voter that Coons does not.     

State

Incumbent

Projected Winner

Opponents

(D) Democrat (R) Republican

(I) Independent (C) Constitution

Tally

Florida

LeMieux (R)

Rubio (R)

Meek (D)

Crist (I)

LeMieux has resigned  his seat and a seat that was once believed to be an automatic win for the current Florida governor, Charlie Crist has been taken by the Tea Party supported Marco Rubio.   Rubio is a first generation American whose parents immigrated from Cuba.  Crist responded to a huge primary loss by choosing to run as an Independent.   What he will find is that Charlie Crist is no Joseph Lieberman, Florida is not Connecticut and 2010 is not 2008.  Lieberman turned Independent and defeated a rival that was a far left alternative to him in 2008.    The concern Floridians have in 2010 is not that Rubio is on the far left, it is that Crist is not a Conservative Republican.   If a parallel is to be drawn, Rubio is the more mainstream candidate than Crist and is more analogous to Lieberman than Crist.    Rubio is currently polling at or above 40%, ahead of Crist and well ahead of Meek.  

State

Incumbent

Projected Winner

Opponents

(D) Democrat (R) Republican

(I) Independent (C) Constitution

Tally

Georgia

Isakson (R)

Isakson (R)

Thurmond (D)

Not much of a challenge here.   Isakson won in 2004 with 58% of the vote and the electorate is not angry with Republicans, they are angry with the Democrats.  

State

Incumbent

Projected Winner

Opponents

(D) Democrat (R) Republican

(I) Independent (C) Constitution

Tally

Hawaii

Inouye (D)

Inouye (D)

Roco (R)

Not much of a challenge here.   Inouye is running 3 : 1 ahead of Roco.   Expect this seat to remain Democrat.   

State

Incumbent

Projected Winner

Opponents

(D) Democrat (R) Republican

(I) Independent (C) Constitution

Tally

Idaho

Crapo (R)

Crapo (R)

Sullivan (D)

Bergquist (C)

Not much of a challenge here.   Crapo was elected in 2004 with 61% of the vote and the Democrats didn't initially offer a challenger.  

State

Incumbent

Projected Winner

Opponents

(D) Democrat (R) Republican

(I) Independent (C) Constitution

Tally

Illinois

Burris (D)

Kirk (R)

Giannoulias (D)

+1

This represents a special election as it is the seat that Barack Obama had prior to 2009 and that Rob Blogojevich allegedly attempted to sell to the highest bidder.   It is currently occupied by a temporary appointee who chose to not run for the Senate.   In other times the Democrat would waltz into this seat but he has been tied to illegalities surrounding a family bank and its loans to both Tony Rezko and a Chicago mobster.    At the same time the Republican candidate has his own problems.    I give the nod ultimately to the Republican.  Most voters don't want mob ties taken to the Senate.   Kirk currently holds a very slight lead in most polls but there are two that I found that show Giannoulias with a slight lead.   All of this is within the margin of error.  

State

Incumbent

Projected Winner

Opponents

(D) Democrat (R) Republican

(I) Independent (C) Constitution

Tally

Indiana

Bayh (D)

Coats (R)

Ellsworth (D)

+1

Evan Bayh prefers to retire from the Senate rather than attempt to run as a Democrat in Indiana once more.    He may have aspirations to someday be President and he knows he cannot do this if he has first been rejected by his own state.    Watch for him in 2012 to test the waters to see if a challenge to Obama is possible.    Coats is polling above 50% and 20 points above Ellsworth.   Expect this seat to change from blue to red.  

State

Incumbent

Projected Winner

Opponents

(D) Democrat (R) Republican

(I) Independent (C) Constitution

Tally

Iowa

Grassley (R)

Grassley (R)

Conlin (D)

Not much of a challenge here.  Grassley won Iowa in 2004 with 70% of the vote.   He is a five term Senator and it is unlikely that he will be upset.  

State

Incumbent

Projected Winner

Opponents

(D) Democrat (R) Republican

(I) Independent (C) Constitution

Tally

Kansas

Brownback (R)

Moran (R)

Johnston (D)

Brownback is retiring but there will likely be no challenge to the Republican candidate.  Moran is polling in the 60% and above.   This seat is safe for the Republicans.        

State

Incumbent

Projected Winner

Opponents

(D) Democrat (R) Republican

(I) Independent (C) Constitution

Tally

Kentucky

Bunning (R)

Paul (R)

Conway (D)

Bunning is retiring but unlike many who are retiring, Bunning is likely retiring because of his age.   Paul is ahead of Conway in by more than ten points in Rasmussen.   Expect this seat to remain in the Republican ranks.     

State

Incumbent

Projected Winner

Opponents

(D) Democrat (R) Republican

(I) Independent (C) Constitution

Tally

Louisiana

Vitter (R)

Vitter (R)

Melancon (D)

Not much of a challenge here.   Vitter is polling above 50% in most polls.

State

Incumbent

Projected Winner

Opponents

(D) Democrat (R) Republican

(I) Independent (C) Constitution

Tally

Maryland

Mikulski (D)

Mikulski (D)

Wargotz (R)

Not much of a challenge here.  Mikulski leads Wargotz by double digits and Maryland is a strong liberal state.   Expect this seat to remain safely with Democrats.  

State

Incumbent

Projected Winner

Opponents

(D) Democrat (R) Republican

(I) Independent (C) Constitution

Tally

Missouri

Bond (D)

Blunt (R)

Carnahan (D)

+1

Bond is retiring.  Robin Carnahan is known to many in Missouri and this may not be an advantage in 2010.   Blunt is ahead in all the polls and is at or close to 50%.     

State

Incumbent

Projected Winner

Opponents

(D) Democrat (R) Republican

(I) Independent (C) Constitution

Tally

Nevada

Reid (D)

Angle (R)

+1

Reid is the Majority Leader in the Senate.  Expect a huge loud thud to come from Nevada on Election Evening.   Angle is poised for the upset.    Reid has consistently polled below 50% without any movement upward over the last several weeks.   Nevadans know Reid.   Undecided will break for Angle because she is not Reid.   They know him and they don't like him.   Who could?  Angle has closed the gap and is now within the margin of error and ahead in some polls.   Expect Angle to win.    This is the sweetest of all the elections on November 2.    Expect this state to go Republican.     

State

Incumbent

Projected Winner

Opponents

(D) Democrat (R) Republican

(I) Independent (C) Constitution

Tally

New Hampshire

Gregg (R)

Ayotte (R)

Hodes (D)

Gregg is retiring.    Ayotte is polling well ahead of his rival, Hodes.  

State

Incumbent

Projected Winner

Opponents

(D) Democrat (R) Republican

(I) Independent (C) Constitution

Tally

New York

Schumer (D)

Schumer (D)

Townsend (R)

Schumer will win this without a real contest.    Sadly, Schumer is polling 20 points ahead of Townsend.   Townsend defeated a candidate in the Republican Primary that was supported by Tea Party enthusiasts.   Expect this seat to remain in the Democrat camp.   

New York

Gillebrand (D)

Gillebrand (D)

DioGuardi (R)

This is a special election to fill the unexpired portion of the seat once held by Hillary Clinton.  She won in 2006 and the term of this election will be for a period of two years.   Gillebrand was appointed to fill the seat vacated by Hillary Clinton when she accepted a post in the Obama Cabinet.  Gillebrand faces a challenge in this election from Joe DioGuardi but she currently has a comfortable lead in the polls.   But.....Watch New York, Connecticut and Delaware.  If all these states go Republican, watch California, Oregon and Washington go the same way.   

State

Incumbent

Projected Winner

Opponents

(D) Democrat (R) Republican

(I) Independent (C) Constitution

Tally

North Carolina

Burr (R)

Burr (R)

 Marshall (D)

Not much of a challenge here.  Burr is polling well ahead of Marshall and is above 50% in Rasmussen poll.

State

Incumbent

Projected Winner

Opponents

(D) Democrat (R) Republican

(I) Independent (C) Constitution

Tally

North Dakota

Dorgan (D)

Hoeven (R)

Potter (D)

+1

Dorgan is retiring as a result of handwriting on the wall.   He was a supporter of the Obama agenda and he represents a state that is largely Republican and a group of constituents that are likely angry.  Hoeven is considered a safe bet in North Dakota.   He is polling near 70%.      

State

Incumbent

Projected Winner

Opponents

(D) Democrat (R) Republican

(I) Independent (C) Constitution

Tally

Ohio

Voinovich (R)

Portman (R)

Fisher (D)

Voinovich is retiring.   Portman is well ahead of Fisher in the polls.   In one he is as high as 55%.  Expect this seat to remain Republican.   

State

Incumbent

Projected Winner

Opponents

(D) Democrat (R) Republican

(I) Independent (C) Constitution

Tally

Oklahoma

Coburn (R)

Coburn (R)

Rogers (D)

Not much of a challenge here.   Coburn leads Rogers by six touchdowns and a field goal in the fourth quarter.    Expect this seat to remain Republican.  

State

Incumbent

Projected Winner

Opponents

(D) Democrat (R) Republican

(I) Independent (C) Constitution

Tally

Oregon

Wyden (D)

Wyden (D)

Huffman (R)

Wyden is running well ahead of Huffman in the polls.  Expect this seat to remain in Democrat hands unless a real tidal wave consumes the country beginning with New York, Connecticut and Delaware in the East.        

State

Incumbent

Projected Winner

Opponents

(D) Democrat (R) Republican

(I) Independent (C) Constitution

Tally

Pennsylvania

Specter (D)

Toomey (R)

Sestak (D)

+1

Jump for joy.   Arlen Specter will be out of the Senate next year.   It matters very little that he was defeated in the Democrat Primary or in the General Election.  What matters most is that we will no longer have to deal with this legislator.  A former RINO Republican Specter changed his party affiliation in 2009 because he realized he would not survive the Republican Primary again.   It was ironic that he then couldn't survive the Democrat Primary despite the alleged attempts to buy Sestak out of the race by the Obama administration.    Expect this seat to return to the Republicans.  

State

Incumbent

Projected Winner

Opponents

(D) Democrat (R) Republican

(I) Independent (C) Constitution

Tally

South Carolina

DeMint (R)

De Mint (R)

Greene (D)

Not much of a challenge here.  Alvin Greene's elevator does not appear to go all the way to the top.  Expect this seat to remain with the Republicans.  

State

Incumbent

Projected Winner

Opponents

(D) Democrat (R) Republican

(I) Independent (C) Constitution

Tally

South Dakota

Thune (R)

Thune (R)

Not much of a challenge here.  Expect this seat to remain a Republican seat.  

State

Incumbent

Projected Winner

Opponents

(D) Democrat (R) Republican

(I) Independent (C) Constitution

Tally

Utah

Bennett (R)

Lee (R)

Granato (D)

Bradley (C)

Bob Bennet lost his seat to Republican Lee who had the support of the Tea Party.   Both current Utah Republican Senators belong to the establishment club that believes that Republicans should behave like gentlemen and cooperate with their adversaries on the other side of the aisle.  They are more concerned with the dignity of the Senate than they are stopping the socialist trend of this government.   They did not learn that Republicans backs are against the wall and our days of compromise are over.   Hatch should take notice.   The next seat lost by an incumbent in a Republican Primary could well be his.   This is still Utah.   Expect this seat to remain Republican.

State

Incumbent

Projected Winner

Opponents

(D) Democrat (R) Republican

(I) Independent (C) Constitution

Tally

Vermont

Leahy (D)

Leahy (D)

Britton (R)

Senator Leahy is among the more despicable men in the Senate.   During the Bush Administration Patrick Leahy was discovered leaking classified military information to the press.   As a result the Bush Administration refused to include Leahy in further briefings.   Had Bush instead put Leahy in the front of a firing squad the result would have been far more favorable to the country.   Sadly we must continue to deal with him and we will likely be dealing with him again in 2011.   Polling has Leahy ahead 2 : 1.   

State

Incumbent

Projected Winner

Opponents

(D) Democrat (R) Republican

(I) Independent (C) Constitution

Tally

Washington

Murray (D)

Rossi (R)

+1

I predict that Patty Murray loses her Senate seat to the Republican.   Murray is not the brightest bulb in the refrigerator and Republicans have already been cheated out of one statewide election in Washington.  Don't expect Republicans to allow themselves to be cheated again.  I believe the underlying benefit to Rossi will be East Coast returns.   They will encourage Republicans in Washington to vote knowing that one more fall and the Senate will be theirs.   As Hugh Hewitt once said, if it isn't close they can't cheat.   

State

Incumbent

Projected Winner

Opponents

(D) Democrat (R) Republican

(I) Independent (C) Constitution

Tally

W Virginia

Goodwin (D)

Raese (R)

Manchin (D)

+1

Goodwin is retiring probably as a result of the votes he took supporting the Obama agenda.  West Virginians are not supportive of many of these policies because they adversely impact the coal industry and cost jobs.  Raese is running ahead of Manchin and I expect him to win because West Virginians understand he will oppose the Obama agenda.   Manchin will not.    

State

Incumbent

Projected Winner

Opponents

(D) Democrat (R) Republican

(I) Independent (C) Constitution

Tally

Wisconsin

Feingold (D)

Johnson (R)

Taylor (C)

+1

This was once thought to be a safe seat for democrats but this democrat's support for Obama and in particular his Healthcare Bill, Cap and Trade, all Stimulus Bills and the Financial Regulatory Bill have rendered him vulnerable.  Johnson is running ahead in the polls by double digits.   Ron Johnson is a millionaire businessman who is currently polling above 50%.   Russ Feingold, you will be missed.....by somebody I am sure, but not by me.