What did the Iowa Straw Poll tell us?

First and foremost fewer than 17,000 people voted.   We should read all the results in that context.  

From my perspective the Straw Poll was a test of organizations and whether the candidate message is getting through.  Michele Bachmann was the winner and it is clear to me that she earned this victory.  As a result fund-raising should be easier but perhaps of greatest significance, Tim Pawlenty has dropped out of the raise.  Pawlenty and perhaps his donors believed that if he could not beat Bachmann in Iowa then his ability to beat her or win anyplace else might be limited.  It was smart for him to drop out.

But what more can be told from there?  Perhaps a more telling poll would have been to have the voters rank the candidates.  Clearly if our number one candidate drops from the race we will find another acceptable alternative in this race for "anyone but Obama".  How many truly believe that anyone who would have voted for Pawlenty would have Ron Paul as their second choice?  Now that Pawlenty is no longer in the race those favoring him will now find someone else.  It is unlikely that it will be Bachmann but it could easily be Romney.  I'd love to know the answer to this question.

The point is that beyond second place there is no clear indication of the true strength of any candidate.  I say beyond second place because Paul's showing was almost as good as Bachmann's.  However, I see the showing of Paul not as a win but as the limit to his support.  Paul's position on Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon and his opinion on other National Security issues places him at odds with every other individual that shared the stage at that debate last week.  Considering this I find it doubtful that the support now with any Republican candidate could possibly go to Paul. 

The next point I wish to make about this Straw Poll is about the announcement of Rick Perry.  Nothing that involves a presidential campaign is accidental.  Perry timed his announcement in South Carolina to interfere with the announcements from the Iowa Straw Poll.  I don't know much about Rick Perry, at least not yet.  I have had no reason to study the man until we knew for sure that he would be a candidate.  I will say that his first impression with me is not good.  He can make this up, yes, but I would like to know why his announcement didn't come sufficiently early to allow him to be included in this Straw Poll?  The obvious reason is that like Romney, Perry did not believe he could win this poll in Iowa and he thus stayed away.  But at least Romney was on the ballot and at least he was at the fair.  Perry was noticeably  absent from everything, including the stage at that Thursday night debate.  My message to Governor Perry is that he is behind.   

What I want to leave everybody with is that they should ignore the talking heads on television who seem to say that anbody but a top three finisher is not a serious candidate.  I listened to one family interviewed who was getting ready to vote.  "Who do you like?" they were asked.  "We like Bachmann but we also like Cain," was the answer.  This fact alone can easily make Herman Cain a far stronger candidate than Ron Paul.  Should Michele Bachmann not do as well in New Hampshire or South Carolina and should her supporters turn to Herman Cain they will rightly make these talking heads' statements about who is possible and who is not fifteen months before an election sound like useless chatter?