Here we are on January 4 and finally, the long awaited Iowa caucuses are over.  Michelle Bachmann has ended her campaign.  I am disappointed.  Rick Perry gives indications that he may pull out of the race.  This does not disappoint me.   

As we look forward to New Hampshire and South Carolina, who are the true contenders?

Iowa says Romney, Santorum, and Paul are the big guns right now.  New Hampshire will likely give Mitt Romney an additional lift.  South Carolina will likely say the opposite.  The strategy for some time has been for Mitt Romney to run against multiple conservatives who will logically split the vote among each other.  The elimination of Bachmann from the campaign helps the other conservatives.  If Perry will withdraw, it will help even further.  

Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum seem to be the two who will work to earn the opportunity to challenge Romney for this eventual nomination.  Paul remains in the race but Paul is no more able to expand his base than is Romney.  I do not believe either man is able to grow beyond a small minority of the Republican population.  Magnify the differences between Romney and the remainder of the candidates and the telling argument is that Romney will likely draw no more Republican votes because of a crowd that does not regard Romney as sufficiently conservative.  As a member of the Tea Party count me among those who will not support Romney in the primaries but who would find him acceptable in a general election against Barack Obama.  To me, Obama is no better than Mussolini was.  I understand that Mussolini at least made the trains run on time.  

Paul is unlikely to gain much support beyond 20 or 25% of the Republican population because of his Libertarian policies, particularly his very dangerous foreign policy.  I regard Paul as being almost as dangerous as another four years of Obama.  The only difference is that I could support Paul's fiscal policies and Paul would restrict himself to remain within the confines of his Constitutional powers.  I have yet to support any policy of Obama.  Obama continues to ignore our Constitution in favor of expediency.  One might ask why Congress allows him to get away with this but then the problem is not only Barack Obama, it is Harry Reid as well. 

All indications are that Newt Gingrich may concentrate on the destruction of Mitt Romney.  Some regard this as a problem.  I do not.  As long as Rick Santorum remains unscathed by such attacks, I worry not that Newt Gingrich might take his case against Mitt Romney to the GOP electorate.  

So, who can still be nominated?  I see Santorum as sitting in the best seat with Gingrich as a strong possibility as well.  Something that makes this incredible is the manner in which Santorum was ignored by the media in countless debates.  He had minimal exposure yet he demonstrated an ability to work Iowa and get the support he needed for a first place tie.  I will look forward to future movements in other states.  I expect Romney to do well in New Hampshire.  This is to be expected, as New Hampshire is his back yard.  I also expect Santorum and Gingrich to do well in South Carolina.  We will have to assess what remains after that.  

As for Huntsman, he should have dropped out weeks ago.